Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXUS63 KIWX 141137
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
637 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance (30-50%) for light rain tonight into Sunday morning
  along and south of the US 30 corridor.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend into next week.

- An active pattern develops during the mid to late week periods
  with periodic chances (30-60%) for rain and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Stretch of early spring-like wx and above normal temps remain the
story through the middle of the week under low amplitude split flow
aloft. Weak elevated deformation and deeper moisture on the northern
fringes of a southern stream system clips areas mainly south of the
US 30 corridor tonight into Sunday morning with a period of light
rain still possible (30-50%). Dry otherwise through at least
Tuesday.

A more active west-southwest flow regime emerges during the mid to
late week periods given a transition to Western CONUS troughing and
southeast US ridging aloft. Moisture advects into a developing
baroclinic zone from the Central Plains into the lower Great Lakes.
Piecemeal ejections of sheared shortwave energy out of the Western
CONUS longwave trough will aid in the development of precipitation
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary and any developing sfc
reflections. Initial development comes Tuesday night into Wednesday
for showers and perhaps a few embedded storms, though a large
portion of the area could end up drier and warmer within the warm
sector. Several more shortwaves and moisture surges take aim on the
region then into the second half of the week into next weekend with
additional chances for precipitation (mainly rain), and a trend
toward cooler temps with the main baroclinic zone eventually
forced farther south toward the OH River.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

High clouds will increase today in association with baroclinic
leaf feature accompanying the next upper trough that will affect
northern Indiana tonight. These high clouds should lower to a
mid level deck tonight, with VFR conditions persisting through
at least the early evening hours. Elevated warm frontal feature
will lift into central Indiana tonight, but cut-off nature of
the stronger mid level low across the Lower MS Valley will limit
northward transport of deeper moisture. This scenario should
produce a sharp south-north gradient to measurable rainfall
chances tonight into early Sunday. Present indications suggest
that KFWA should be on northern edge of measurable rain
potential, but will defer precip mention with the 12Z TAFs given
potential maintenance of dry 5-10k ft layer and lower
confidence in northward extent of rain tonight as hi-res
ensemble guidance tends to keep this potential south of US 24.
The shallow moisture return tonight and stagnant/weak pressure
pattern across the southern Great Lakes could give rise to at
least some fog potential after 06Z Sunday morning and will trend
12Z TAFs to MVFR vsby inclusion toward the end of this forecast
valid period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili