Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

672
FXUS63 KIWX 031140
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
640 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers, heavy at times, over southern
  Michigan into far northern Indiana, continue this morning.
  Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible, with
  higher amounts possible over northern Berrien and Cass
  counties.

- Dry weather returns this afternoon into Wednesday morning
  before some additional rain and snow develop later Wednesday
  through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A band of very heavy lake enhanced snow is riding a shortwave
down the eastern side of Lake Michigan this morning. However,
with the low level flow having trended west-southwest over
southern Michigan, the heaviest snow is likely to stay north of
our forecast area. Will leave current winter weather warnings
and advisories in place, although am pessimistic that La Porte
County will receive much more if any snow, and St. Joseph
County in Indiana may not get much more either. CAMs suggest the
best chances for additional heavy snow will still be across
northern Berrien and Cass counties in Michigan.

After this shortwave moves east of the area later this morning,
snow showers will taper off and dry conditions can be expected
through Wednesday morning. A brief pattern change will then
occur on Wednesday as weak surface ridging pushes up from the
southeast and increasing southerly winds bring warm air
advection, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 30s to low
40s. Upper troughing will then bring another weather
disturbance into the area on Wednesday afternoon/evening that
will consist of a mix of rain and snow. However, cold air will
return quickly on Wednesday night, and accumulating snow can be
expected through Thursday, especially north of US 30.

Friday will be cold but dry, but zonal flow will moderate
temperatures some for the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in
the mid 30s to low 40s, and then they will rise into the low to
mid 40s for Sunday, and mid to upper 40s on Monday. Rainfall
chances also increase Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

One last lake effect snow band was moving south and southeast
over southern Lake Michigan into far southern Lower Michigan.
Cloud layer winds were trying to back with the snow showers
moving more southeast than south. Heavier snowshowers are no
longer expected at SBN but left a TEMPO 4SM until 15Z with a
chance for lighter snow arriving there. Otherwise, conditions
should be VFR. Winds will continue to back tonight and then
increase ahead of the next system.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     INZ005.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ104-
     204.
OH...None.
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ078-
     177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Skipper